--- title: Why Predicting Mortgage Rates IS HARD (And What Ice Cream Can Teach Us About It) description: Discover what 2025 holds for homebuyers with insights into mortgage rates, housing inventory, and market trends in California and beyond. Learn about opportunities, challenges, and tips to make informed decisions in the dynamic real estate market. image: https://www.pointequity.com/hubfs/Two%20Boys%20Eating%20Ice%20Cream.png --- [![916-248-4620](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/4355458/ec1ee27c-25ba-4518-bc57-e8edc9cb7c7e.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/4355458/ec1ee27c-25ba-4518-bc57-e8edc9cb7c7e) [![Apply Now](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/4355458/bbb1c79c-b2d0-469c-ac5a-5a51e3eac6df.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/4355458/bbb1c79c-b2d0-469c-ac5a-5a51e3eac6df) [![Point Equity](https://www.pointequity.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Point_Equity_April2018/Images/point_logo3.png?width=120&name=point_logo3.png "Point Equity")](https://www.pointequity.com/) ** [Purchase](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/tag/purchase) | 4 MIN READ # Why Predicting Mortgage Rates IS HARD (And What Ice Cream Can Teach Us About It) March 16, 2025 ![](https://www.pointequity.com/hubfs/Two%20Boys%20Eating%20Ice%20Cream.png) ![Point Equity](https://www.pointequity.com/hubfs/bridger-white-background-no-circle-1.png) [Written by Point Equity](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/author/point-equity) ![](https://www.pointequity.com/hubfs/Two%20Boys%20Eating%20Ice%20Cream.png) ![](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/2029673/Assets/Search_Image.png) [**](https://twitter.com/share?url=https://www.pointequity.com/blog/speculation-is-hard/) [**](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://www.pointequity.com/blog/speculation-is-hard/&summary=&source=CeBIT) [**](http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https://www.pointequity.com/blog/speculation-is-hard/) ## **To understand why prediction is hard, look no further than a short story about my kids + ice cream.** --- ### **MY KIDS LOVE ICE CREAM** I head upstairs to get work done, leaving the kiddos downstairs. They know ice cream is in the freezer. They know I’m upstairs and occupied with work. So what do they do? They race to the freezer and devour as much ice cream as possible… as quickly as possible. Although irrational, the behavior is entirely predictable—I set the conditions for it. --- ### **THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND** I try to be fun, Dad. “Boys, to the kitchen!” “Yes, Dad?” “Let’s have some ice cream before lunch!” I smile. “No thanks, Dad, we’re not hungry.” What the actual heck just happened?! That was unexpected.  They never turn down ice cream. --- ### **THE OUTLIER** Confused, I followed them into the family room. They were engulfed in Moana 2, which had just been released on pay-per-view. I didn’t know. Even if I did, I wouldn't have expected Moana 2 to be a desirable substitute for ice cream. *This analogy might be a bit of a stretch, but not by much...*   --- ## **My Kids Behavior Mirrors Human Behavior, Making Prediction Hard** **![Dad sitting at table by himself with three bowls of ice cream](https://www.pointequity.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Dad%20sitting%20at%20table%20by%20himself%20with%20three%20bowls%20of%20ice%20cream.webp?width=1024&height=1024&name=Dad%20sitting%20at%20table%20by%20himself%20with%20three%20bowls%20of%20ice%20cream.webp)** Some of my favorite economists and industry-leading experts deeply understand what drives mortgage rates up and down. - They analyze the past. - They review charts, historical trends, and reports. - They pay hyper-close attention to politics, global markets, economic indicators, inflation, global conflicts... and even the weather. - They also understand humans very well and the behavior of important players in our economy, such as Jerome Powell.   They tally up all of the data and make a prediction.  ## **But Then!** **![Kid in Bow Tie Screaming](https://www.pointequity.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Kid%20in%20Bow%20Tie%20Screaming.jpeg?width=8101&height=4540&name=Kid%20in%20Bow%20Tie%20Screaming.jpeg)** ## What just happened?  - A key economic report didn't come in as expected. - The Federal Reserve makes a surprising statement. - Inflation trends take an unexpected turn. - A global event shocks the market. - Consumer behavior shifts unpredictably. - Etc.  Etc.  Etc.   Suddenly, all that careful analysis is thrown off course—just like my kids rejecting ice cream before lunch.   *Sometimes, experts predict almost everything correctly—and mortgage rates still don’t behave as expected.* ## **It Is Impossible To Bat A Thousand ** To get it right all the time, you'd need to: - Know all the data. - Accurately predict everything that’s going to happen. - Understand precisely how humans will react when those things happen. It’s really, really hard. So, be nice to your local speculator—they have a tough job. And remember this when you ask your favorite mortgage or real estate professional, "Where are rates headed?"  : )  [![Apply Online](https://hubspot-no-cache-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/4355458/d4c08b20-688f-4a81-8b24-23e657be1ff0.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-na2-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/4355458/d4c08b20-688f-4a81-8b24-23e657be1ff0) ## Related Posts [![](https://www.pointequity.com/hubfs/Man%20Thinking%20of%20Home%20(Blue%20House).png) ](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/psychology-of-home-shopping) ### [The Psychology of Falling Out of Escrow](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/psychology-of-home-shopping) April 15, 2025 [Purchase](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/tag/purchase) | 4 MIN READ [![](https://www.pointequity.com/hubfs/Wood%20Blocs%20Spelling%202025%20with%20Wooden%20Toy%20House.jpeg) ](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/buying-a-home-in-2025) ### [Buying in 2025 - Some Things to Know if You Plan to Buy a Home in 2025](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/buying-a-home-in-2025) December 31, 2024 [Purchase](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/tag/purchase) | 4 MIN READ [![](https://www.pointequity.com/hubfs/Toy%20Pickup%20Truck%20with%20Chair%20in%20Back-1.jpeg) ](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/best-moving-solutions-for-you) ### [Moving Mattresses - The Best Moving Solutions For You](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/best-moving-solutions-for-you) November 18, 2024 [featured](https://www.pointequity.com/blog/tag/featured) | 5 MIN READ ### Subscribe Here! # Free Marketing Resources ### Subscribe to Email Updates [![point_logo](https://www.pointequity.com/hs-fs/hubfs/point_logo.png?width=1849&name=point_logo.png "point_logo")](https://www.pointequity.com) Point Equity Residential Lending 915 Highland Pointe Dr. Suite 160 Roseville, CA 95678   [Local: (916) 248-4620](tel:9162484620) [Toll Free: (888) 551-5110](tel:9995515110) Fax: (916) 914-2306 [info@pointequity.com](mailto:info@pointequity.com) ##### [Buy a Home](https://www.pointequity.com/buy-a-home) ##### [Refinance](https://www.pointequity.com/refinance) ##### [About Us](https://www.pointequity.com/about-us) ##### [Join the Team](https://www.pointequity.com/join-the-team) ##### [Contact Us](https://www.pointequity.com/contact-us) ##### [Resources](https://www.pointequity.com/blog) ### Subscribe to our Newsletter! Point Equity Residential Lending, NMLS ID 1404205. [NMLS Consumer Access Link](https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/EntityDetails.aspx/COMPANY/1404205)    Main Office is at 915 Highland Pointe Dr. Suite 160, Roseville, CA 95678. Telephone Number: 916-248-4620. Equal Housing Lender. Licensed in: California (60DBO-56023 & 01987090), Idaho (MBL-2081404205), Washington (CL-1404205). Information, rates, and programs are subject to change without notice and may not be available in all states. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. All products are subject to credit and property approval.   © Copyright  2020 Point Equity Residential Lending | [Privacy Policy](https://www.pointequity.com/privacy-policy) | [Disclaimer](https://www.pointequity.com/disclaimer)   All information contained herein is for informational purposes only, and while every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs, and underwriting policies are subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states, and restrictions apply. Equal Housing Opportunity. [**](https://www.facebook.com/pointequity/) [**](https://www.linkedin.com/company/pointequity/) [**](https://www.instagram.com/pointequity/)